Before the Fed decision, all eyes will be on this big Treasury debt announcement Wednesday

An announcement Wednesday on refunding, entailing the size of Treasury auctions as well as the duration mix of the debt that will be issued, is expected to draw more market interest than usual.

The key variables markets will be watching are the actual sizes of the auction as well as the mix between maturities. “The reality is there is a supply demand mismatch in the market today, and that is what has led to this move in bond yields,” said Josh Emanuel, chief investment officer at Wilshire. “Some have said that the issuance is almost more important than what the Fed says or what the Fed does, but I actually think both in combination are really important here.”

“We think the US Treasury’s upcoming quarterly refunding meeting might deliver a surprise relative to market expectations – in which the Treasury might decide to increase coupons at a lower pace than what its ‘regular and predictable’ strategy might have suggested in August,” Guneet Dhingra, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Morgan Stanley, said in a note to clients.

Speaking at an event for the Robin Hood Foundation, Druckenmiller said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen should have been issuing more debt at 10- and 30-year durations but opted instead to focus on the shorter end of the curve.

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